On September 22, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract for November delivery decreased by 0.27% by the end of Tuesday's daytime trading and rose by 0.02% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 24,195/tonne as of 1 a.m. Wednesday, September 23, 2026.
The news of progress in US-Iran talks presents a complex impact on aluminum prices, best characterized as "bearish in the short term, but supported at the bottom". On one hand, should a deal be reached and the Strait of Hormuz reopen, the Middle East geopolitical risk premium that previously propped up aluminum prices would significantly unwind, including rising expectations of production resumption at Middle Eastern smelters, the recovery of overseas aluminum ingot shipments, and declining energy and freight costs, which would directly weigh on the short-term performance of LME and SHFE aluminum.
On the other hand, if Trump's anticipated "sharp drop in oil prices" materializes, it would ease global inflationary pressures and could prompt a shift toward monetary easing by the Federal Reserve; a weaker dollar and improved liquidity would, in turn, provide a floor for aluminum prices.
On September 22, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 24,270/tonne, down Yuan 50/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 24,490/tonne, down Yuan 60/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 24,180/tonne, down Yuan 50/tonne from the previous day.
Against the above macro backdrop, SHFE aluminum is currently in a "supply-at-ceiling, low inventories, demand-resilient-but-cautious-ahead-of-holiday" setup. Domestic aluminum capacity is already approaching the 45-million-tonne ceiling, so new supply additions are very limited, and overall traders' inventories remain relatively low, with cost support from alumina and power.
On the demand side, the real estate sector stays weak, but green aluminum demand from solar, NEVs and cables underpins consumption. After entering the "golden September, silver October" peak season, downstream players have shown some pre-holiday restocking, yet high prices discourage chasing the rally, so overall trading is only moderate.
In yesterday's morning session, SHFE aluminum oscillated higher, with traders' inventories in the Central Plains market falling and holding near 130,000 tonnes. The basis strengthened as holders controlled their selling pace, supported prices and were reluctant to sell, leaving spot supply in the market relatively tighter. As aluminum prices continued to pull back, downstream demand was partly released, with buyers restocking at lower prices and stepping up procurement, while traders entered the market to prioritize cheap sources. Trading sentiment improved and overall deals were fair.
In South China, the basis remained elevated. Although spot circulation was ample, with the long-term contract delivery window approaching, the market expected the basis to keep strengthening, so offer holders were firm on prices. Downstream users began stocking up for the holiday, and overall turnover was moderate.
In summary, SHFE aluminum is caught between short-term macro headwinds from easing geopolitical tensions and firm underlying fundamentals. While the US-Iran progress and potential oil price decline may unwind risk premiums and cap the upside, limited domestic supply growth, low inventories, and resilient green-demand support provide a solid floor. As a result, the market is expected to hold a range-bound, high-level oscillation in the near term.
