On September 23, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract for November delivery decreased by 0.14% by the end of Wednesday's daytime trading and rose by 0.02% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 24,230/tonne as of 1 a.m. Thursday, September 24, 2026.
This macro combination creates a hedging dynamic for aluminum prices, making a near-term high-level wide-range oscillation, with a ceiling above and a floor below, the most likely scenario. On the bullish side, Iran insists that reopening the Strait of Hormuz must meet its conditions, so the geopolitical risk premium does not fade; as the Middle East is a major global primary aluminum producing region, shipping costs and export rhythms face uncertainty, and with crude oil staying elevated, the energy cost center for aluminum shifts higher, providing solid support underneath aluminum prices.
On the bearish side, the U.S. September composite PMI flash beat expectations and hit a five-year high, while the 10-year Treasury yield has again broken above 5%; markets are pricing in a longer-high-rates or even further-hike path from the Fed, and a stronger dollar plus rising real rates weigh on the valuation and demand expectations of industrial metals, forming a ceiling on aluminum's upside.
On September 23, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 24,240/tonne, down Yuan 30/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 24,520/tonne, up Yuan 30/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 24,150/tonne, up Yuan 30/tonne from the previous day.
Today, SHFE aluminum fluctuated within a narrow range. Traders' inventories of aluminum ingots fell by 47,000 tonnes from Monday to 651,000 tonnes. With persistently low overseas inventories and the ongoing drawdown trend in domestic stocks, SHFE aluminum is expected to run with a bias toward strength while oscillating around the 40-day moving average, as long as the peak-season consumption narrative remains unchallenged by hard data.
Yesterday's early session saw SHFE aluminum fluctuate downward. Traders' inventories in the Central Plains market decreased, holding near 130,000 tonnes. As the basis strengthened, holders controlled their selling pace, supporting prices and showing reluctance to sell, which relatively tightened the circulation of available material in the market. As aluminum prices continued to decline, downstream buyers purchased as needed, with some enterprises growing more wait-and-see; traders actively entered the market to absorb lower-priced material. Overall turnover remained stable.
In the South China market, with the long-term contract delivery date approaching, the basis surged sharply, traders showed poor enthusiasm for taking deliveries, and downstream end-users gradually completed their dual-festival stockpiling, resulting in generally moderate overall trading activity.
Overall, aluminum prices are caught in a tug-of-war between geopolitical supply risks and macro headwinds. While Middle East tensions and ongoing inventory drawdowns provide a firm floor, persistent inflation signals and elevated U.S. yields cap the upside, keeping the market in a range-bound.
