Copper prices increased on September 30, with China's spot premiums generally falling across major markets due to weakening sentiment approaching the National Day holiday (October 1-7). During the holiday, China's futures markets closed, while overseas copper prices remained fluctuating at elevated levels.
China's refined copper spot trading weakened on September 30, as downstream stockpiling largely concluded. During the holiday, most market participants ceased transactions, awaiting for the reopening. Refined copper retail inventory kept dropping as of September 30, and is expected to see limited accumulation after the holiday, as smelters' shipments to warehouses will be constrained, according to Mysteel's pre-holiday survey.
Trading in China's copper semis markets generally declined on September 30, and stayed generally quiet during the holiday, except for the copper foil market where robust demand supported high operating rates. Most refined copper rod enterprises followed previous plans, conducting maintenance and shutdown for various days, while secondary copper rod producers' operations remained constrained by raw material availability. Copper plate/strip enterprises largely maintained normal operations, while copper bar producers generally shut down for 3 days.
Post-holiday, copper prices in China are expected to stay elevated, supported by shrinking supply due to concentrated maintenance and output cuts in October. Though downstream demand will take time to recover, low inventory is anticipated to continue supporting high spot premiums. As macro disruptions will remain mixed, close attention is needed on the pace of demand recovery and the developments of major macro events.
