On October 13, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract for November delivery decreased by 1.12% by the end of Tuesday's daytime trading and fell by 0.45% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 23,355/tonne as of 1 a.m. Wednesday, October 14, 2026.
US President Trump said he will soon make a decision on Iran, and security risks to energy facilities in the Middle East have escalated further. Fed's Williams said one more rate hike this year is appropriate, and currently sees no need to raise rates in 2027. The bullish effect from cooling rate-hike expectations has been offset by a strong US dollar, and markets are waiting for US inflation data for further direction, leaving the macro backdrop cautious.
On October 13, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 23,720/tonne, down Yuan 90/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 23,800/tonne, down Yuan 160/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 23,630/tonne, down Yuan 90/tonne from the previous day.
On fundamentals, after a brief post-holiday build-up in domestic traders' inventories, stocks have resumed drawing down, while LME inventories remain low overseas, providing support at the bottom for aluminum prices.
Yesterday morning session, SHFE aluminum oscillated lower. In the Central Plains market, traders' inventories fell and held near 110,000 tonnes. The basis strengthened; holders were not eager to sell and cash out, instead supporting prices and releasing material slowly, so available spot supply tightened somewhat. As the futures market fluctuated, holders followed by adjusting offers. Downstream buyers stuck to need-based procurement with strong wait-and-see sentiment; traders stepped in to pick up low-priced discounted material. Overall trading was cautious, with average turnover.
In the South China market, prompt prices were below the cross-month average, but sellers were still fairly willing to offload cargoes yesterday, material was offered at flat or even small discounts, so spot circulation was relatively loose. Downstream plants restocked on rigid demand only, and overall deals were mediocre.
Overall, with strong near-term macro uncertainty, low inventories underpinning the downside but insufficient upside drivers, SHFE aluminum is expected to trade in a soft/weak range.
