On October 19, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract for November delivery increased by 0.67% by the end of Monday's daytime trading and rose by 0.41% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 23,415/tonne as of 1 a.m. Tuesday, October 20, 2026.
The U.S. Department of Energy is reportedly considering converting sanctioned oil tankers into compliant vessels to transport unsanctioned crude oil, with the number of ships potentially reaching dozens or even over one hundred. Kevin Hassett, the White House economic adviser, noted that the latest CPI data shows inflation remains a concern, while emphasizing full respect for the Federal Reserve's decision-making.
Overseas markets are engaged in active positioning around Fed policy expectations, with the inflation print briefly reigniting rate-hike bets. Concurrent strength in U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar has weighed on the valuation of the nonferrous metals complex. Domestically, post-holiday inventory drawdowns have accelerated and are running ahead of seasonal norms, lending fundamental support to aluminum prices. Near-term headwinds from overseas macro factors persist. Key watchpoints ahead: shifts in Fed policy expectations, developments in Middle East geopolitics, and the pace of domestic inventory destocking.
On October 19, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 23,650/tonne, up Yuan 180/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 23,620/tonne, up Yuan 150/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 23,530/tonne, up Yuan 170/tonne from the previous day.
SHFE aluminum traded in a firm, range-bound pattern through the morning session. In the East China spot market, sentiment shifted from firm to soft. Arrivals over the weekend were limited, and inventories extended their downtrend. Holders initially leaned on pricing support early in the session, but as the basis stayed strong and aluminum prices rebounded, some sellers began cutting offers to move metal and lock in cash, capping further upside. Available tonnage gradually loosened. Downstream fabricators maintained restocking demand on rallies, yet traders' appetite for chasing highs faded, leaving overall trading activity marginally softer.
In the Central Plains market, traders' inventories declined and the basis widened. Sellers were proactive in offloading positions, keeping spot supply ample. With aluminum prices higher, downstream buyers sourced only on a needs-must basis and stayed largely on the sidelines. Merchants selectively lifted discounted, low-priced material when opportunities emerged. The broader market tone cooled, and deal volumes were assessed as fair to moderate.
Overall, SHFE aluminum stayed supported by domestic inventory draws, while spot physical trade softened as sellers cashed out into the rally. A firmer USD and sticky U.S. inflation capped upside for nonferrous metals; range-bound trade likely near term.
