The most-traded GFEX lithium carbonate contract failed to show signs of recovery yesterday, closing the day session with a daily reduction of 4.3%. The market trading has shifted from "current supply and demand" to "expectations of supply surplus in 2027", which is the fundamental reason for this round of decline. Current futures pricing reflects the market's expectations for 2027 supply-demand balance sheet, not the monthly production schedule for October. Even though battery and cathode material production schedules in October still rose month-on-month (LFP cathode production schedule up 3.6% month-on-month in October based on Mysteel's survey), this failed to lift futures prices, as capital pricing focus has shifted to long-term oversupply.
