China's chicken prices expected to rebound modestly after bottoming in October

As of October 13, 2026, the mainstream selling price of 817 small white chicken was quoted at Yuan 3.41/jin, Yuan 0.44/jin lower than the mid-September high of Yuan 3.85/jin, a decline of 11.4%. During the same period, chick quotes fell from Yuan 0.95/bird to 0.70 yuan/bird, a decline of 26.3%.

In detail, the 3-jin specification 817 small white chicken fell from Yuan 4.40/jin to Yuan 3.50 /jin, a drop of more than 20%, noticeably higher than the 5%–8% price decline for smaller specifications of the same kind.

Large-specification live chickens mainly go to group catering and deep-processing channels, and demand in this segment fell fastest after the holiday. Smaller specifications (1.3–2.2 jin) are used in traditional processed products such as braised chicken and roast chicken, where demand is relatively stable and prices have been the firmest.

The more rapid price drop in large-specification live chickens is also partly attributed to the supply sufficiency, which was traced back to 2025, when 817 small white chicken production was 2.5499 million tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 41.3%, while slaughter volume was 2.523 billion birds, up only 1.9%. The production growth was far higher than slaughter growth, indicating a clear increase in average weight per bird. Supply of large-specification live chickens was therefore relatively ample, which is one of the reasons why large-specification prices were the weakest.

Currently, although the supply of 817 small white chickens has been contracting, this is more the result of industry losses forcing capacity reduction rather than proactive capacity elimination.

According to Mysteel's data, in the week of October 9, 2026, chick output was 579,600 birds, down 3.3% from the previous week and down about 20% cumulatively from the high at the end of June. Chick output itself is a result of farming profits, that is, the more losses are incurred, the less restocking occurs.

With a 45-55 day rearing cycle, birds slaughtered from late October to November correspond to placements in early to mid-September, when weekly chick output stood at 590,000–620,000 birds; therefore, supply was not especially tight. A meaningful supply crunch is not expected until late November onwards.

Demand is similarly weak. After the National Day holiday, domestic slaughter operating rates rose from 34.25% in the week of October 2 to 45.26% in the week of October 9, an increase of 11 percentage points; but over the same period, the frozen chicken storage capacity rate rose from 45.20% to 67.86%, an increase of 22.7 percentage points.

The storage rate rose much more than the slaughter rate, indicating that finished chicken products are not selling well and finished product inventories have been passively accumulating. A rebound in operating rates does not equal an improvement in demand; it looks more like restocking brought about by post-holiday resumption of work.

This round of 817 small white chicken price decline is not only the result of its own supply and demand, but is also affected by overall domestic poultry meat consumption and substitutes.

First, domestic consumption remains persistently weak. In August 2026, national catering revenue grew only 1.1% year-on-year, and downstream procurement was mainly "buy as needed." The dual-holiday stocking that normally starts in late September did not appear this year, and slaughter enterprise operating rates actually declined before the holiday.

Second, more direct pressure comes from substitutes including hogs and white-feathered broilers. The external DLY hog prices in Shandong fell from Yuan 11.03/kg on September 15 to Yuan 10.04/kg on October 14 (about Yuan 5.02/jin). Continuously falling pig prices have compressed the overall price comparison space for poultry meat.

The other is white-feathered broilers, whose average prices rebounded from Yuan 2.80/jin at the end of September to Yuan 3.15/jin on October 13 in Shandong, narrowing the price gap with 817 small white chickens to only Yuan 0.26/jin, and under the main production area basis, to only Yuan 0.10–0.20/jin.

The premium that 817 small white chickens previously had over white-feathered broilers has basically disappeared, and price-sensitive channels such as group catering and fast food have stronger incentives to switch procurement.

In this round of chicken meat price decline, profit performance across all links of the industrial chain has diverged noticeably.

According to Mysteel calculations (3-jin slaughter weight, feed-to-meat ratio of 1.60, including depreciation), losses on the farming side gradually widened: Yuan 0.70/bird on September 14, Yuan 0.97/bird on September 30, once as high as Yuan 1.39/bird on October 10, and Yuan 1.33/bird on October 13, with per-bird losses nearly doubling from mid-September. Almost all of the cost of the live chicken price decline was borne by the farming side.

The slaughtering side was exactly the opposite. Slaughter profit for white-striped chicken (3 jin and above) went from a loss of Yuan 498.75/tonne during September 16–18 to a profit of Yuan 249.38/tonne on September 28, and reached a profit of Yuan 590.63/tonne on October 13.

The reason is that the decline in live chicken procurement prices was greater than the decline in white-striped chicken and by-product selling prices--live chickens fell Yuan 0.4/jin, corresponding to a cost decrease of about Yuan 2,000/tonne for white-striped chicken, while product selling prices fell far less than that. Slaughter enterprises improved their profits during this round of live chicken price declines.

The hatching side turned from slight profit to loss, with self-raised profit going from 0.07–0.09 yuan per bird in September to -0.19 to -0.89 yuan per bird in October.

The profits given up by farming and hatching were taken over by the slaughtering segment. Whether this pattern can continue depends on whether product inventories can be digested.

In late October, 817 small white chicken prices are expected to remain in low-level fluctuation. Chicks are expected to run weakly at Yuan 0.65–0.75/bird; the national mainstream live chicken price is expected to run in the Yuan 3.30–3.55/jin range. Falling below Yuan 3.30/jin would require new bearish factors, while upside is constrained by high inventories and substitutes. White-striped product prices will continue to be weak.

From November to the end of the year, 817 small white chicken prices may have opportunities for phased recovery, but two conditions must be met. First, seasonal demand: starting in late November, temperatures drop, consumption of northern braised chicken and roast chicken picks up, and together with the cured meat season, this directly drives demand for small specifications. Second, supply-side tightening materializes: restocking decreases noticeably from late October to November, corresponding to tighter slaughter from December to January of the following year.

If the above conditions are met, after 817 small white chicken prices bottom out Yuan 3.30–3.55/jin in late October, the national average price is expected to return to Yuan 3.50–3.80/jin in mid-to-late November, and run in the Yuan 3.60–4.00/jin range in December. However, this upward move mainly relies on seasonality and supply time lags, not a trend reversal in demand, so the magnitude and sustainability are expected to be limited.