After the National Day holiday, the seasonal demand lull is dominating the domestic egg market, and egg prices are showing initial signs of recovery after multiple rounds of bottoming out.
As of October 21, the national average egg price in major producing areas stood at Yuan 3.77/jin, up 1.34% week-on-week, while the average price in major sales areas was Yuan 3.78/jin, up 1.07% week-on-week. This article provides a brief analysis of the current supply-demand landscape and the price outlook.
As of October 20, the average egg price in major producing areas was Yuan 4.72/jin, down Yuan 0.64/jin from September 16, a decline of 30.6% over just over a month. After prices fell to relatively low levels, traders in some low-price regions began tentative purchases, shipment speeds in producing areas improved from earlier levels, and market sentiment recovered accordingly.
In addition, falling temperatures have improved egg storage and transportation conditions which increased traders' stocking willing.
However, China's egg market is in a seasonal off-season: neither food factories nor supermarkets are building concentrated stockpiles, and downstream traders are mainly making need-based purchases. While the culling pace of spent hens has remained stable, keeping the supply side temporarily steady in the near term. With egg supply rising and demand lackluster, the room for a rebound is naturally capped.
A halt in the decline does not mean a reversal. Three supply-side pressures continue to weigh on egg prices: first, falling temperatures are driving layer production rates higher; second, delayed culling of old hens is pronounced; third, earlier chick placements continue to translate into new laying flocks, with new capacity still being released. Together, these factors mean supply-side pressure on the domestic egg market is increasing rather than easing.
Following the typical seasonal pattern, e-commerce platforms will conduct a round of modest stockpiling from late October to early November for gift boxes and promotions, providing some support to egg prices.
However, the stockpiling is limited in scale and short in duration-more of a "pulse" in demand-and is unlikely to offset the increase in supply. Egg prices may rebound modestly around the end of the month before returning to a weaker trajectory.
In addition, the current chicken farming cost is about Yuan 3.48/jin, with a profit of about Yuan 0.29/jin, leaving eggs marginally profitable and farmers' willingness to proactively cull remains weak.
In summary, egg prices have essentially bottomed out in the near term, but upside room is limited, with the market overall maintaining a "weak rebound, hard to sustain" pattern.
Going forward, two signals warrant close attention: first, the culling pace of spent hens-accelerated culling would substantially ease supply pressure; second, traders' purchasing sentiment-only if bottom-fishing turns into sustained restocking will the rebound have a basis for continuation. Until then, expectations for the rebound's magnitude should not be set too high.
