Mysteel's imported copper concentrate spot treatment charge (TC) index stood at -$241.07/dmt as of October 23, falling slightly week on week, with recent declines slowing.
Some smelters maintained marginal profitability by increasing the proportion of copper scrap in their feedstock, while persistently low TCs continued to dampen their willingness to procure copper concentrate. In addition, some smelters had largely secured their raw material requirements for the remainder of the year, while others adopted a wait-and-see approach as TCs continued to decline. Overall, smelters limited purchases to immediate needs, and recent subdued demand has slowed the pace of decline in spot TCs.
Source: Mysteel
According to Mysteel's survey, market participants' expectations for further TC declines have eased. One trader sold containerized cargoes for delivery from December 2026 through the first quarter of 2027 to a smelter at index minus $5/dmt. Another trader reportedly offered cargoes for December 2026-January 2027 shipment at index minus $25/dmt, while a smelter countered at around index minus $15/dmt. The persistent gap between bids and offers indicates that negotiations remain unresolved.
Regarding mining disruptions, though strike risks eased at Chile's Centinela and Escondida mines, another strike began at the Highland Valley Copper (HVC) mine in British Columbia on October 24, and the mine's operations were continued at reduced capacity. HVC produced 127,000 tonnes of copper in 2025, while Teck as the operator said that the impact on copper production remains dependent on the strike duration, adding to the current supply concerns.
China's average 98% smelting sulfuric acid price stood at Yuan 1,369/tonne on October 23, slightly rising from Yuan 1,346/tonne on October 16, primarily supported by tight supply amid concentrated maintenance, while demand recovery stayed limited, and cost support remained diverged.
China's sulfuric acid prices are expected to edge up further this week. On the supply side, several producers in Central, East, and South China will remain under maintenance, keeping spot availability particularly tight in some regions. Most producers are holding low sulfuric acid inventories, providing support for prices. However, overall demand may remain weak. The fertilizer market continues to be mediocre, while downstream chemical industries are purchasing mainly to meet immediate needs. Market participants remain cautious, with prices largely determined through negotiations in individual transactions. On the cost side, sulfur prices have fallen significantly, while copper, lead, and zinc ore prices remain elevated, widening cost disparities among sulfuric acid producers using different feedstock routes. Overall, China's sulfuric acid market is expected to remain regionally divergent this week. Prices are likely to stay firm in most regions, supported by low inventories and ongoing maintenance, with further increases possible in areas facing tight supply. Market participants should closely monitor the resumption of operations at producers undergoing maintenance and changes in downstream demand.
Source: Mysteel
Moving forward, close attention is needed on the sustainability of the rebound in sulfuric acid prices. Cost support may continue to diverge, and demand improvement is likely to stay limited. Consequently, sulfuric acid's supplement to copper smelting profits is unlikely to increase notably, leading Chinese smelters' operations to stay under pressure.
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Written by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
