On November 3, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract decreased by 0.78% by the end of Tuesday's daytime trading and fell by 0.76% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 22,940/tonne as of 1 a.m. Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
Macro-wise, US–Iran talks remain in a stalemate, with the two sides still far from reaching an agreement. The geopolitical risk premium has not fully faded, but there is little near-term catalyst to push tensions higher. Meanwhile, US September JOLTS job openings rose sharply to 7.52 million, well above expectations; labor-market resilience further cooled Fed rate-cut bets, and after the data, Treasury yields climbed and the dollar strengthened, weighing on the valuation of non-ferrous metals. That said, aluminum is less exposed to macro shocks, its financial attributes are weaker than those of precious metals, so its price trend depends more on its own fundamentals.
On November 3, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 23,450/tonne, down Yuan 70/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 23,530/tonne, down Yuan 30/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 23,310/tonne, down Yuan 40/tonne from the previous day.
Yesterday morning session, SHFE aluminum oscillated lower. In the Central Plains market, traders' inventories fell and stayed near 70,000 tonnes. As the basis widened, holders actively sold to cash out, so spot supply in the market was relatively loose.
With aluminum prices continuing to decline, downstream buyers' willingness to purchase improved; they restocked on demand at lower prices, and buying momentum increased. Traders gave priority to sourcing discounted low-priced material. Overall, trading was fair.
In the South China market, the A00 aluminum ingot basis held at a premium of Yuan 130/tonne for three consecutive trading days. Although spot circulation remained loose, deeply discounted material was rarely seen. Downstream end-users maintained rigid-demand restocking, and overall transactions improved.
Overall, SHFE aluminum traded softer as a firmer dollar and higher Treasury yields, driven by resilient US jobs data and fading Fed rate-cut expectations, capped non-ferrous valuations, while lingering US–Iran tensions kept some geopolitical risk premium in play. On the fundamental side, lower aluminum prices spurred downstream rigid-demand restocking and improved spot activity. The market looks set to stay rangebound: macro providing the ceiling, fundamentals providing the floor.
