1. Sample description
Mysteel surveyed samples of China's major air conditioner brands except for non-standard and OEM brands, accounting for about 80% of China's total air conditioner production capacity, and their output accounted for 78-85% of China's total.
Copper consumption data is based on measuring the consumption of copper tubes and brass in various household air conditioners, as well as in the major models of commercial air conditioners, then through scientific calculation. The degree of agreement with the actual consumption is more than 85%. The production forecasting model is obtained by the weighted average of the scheduled production of major air conditioner enterprises and the production plans of air conditioner refrigeration parts and copper tube enterprises.
2. China's air conditioner brands' production
According to Mysteel survey, China's major air conditioner manufacturers produced 9.87 million units in October, which fell 14.10% month on month and 2.66% year on year. The spread of the epidemic had once again formed a new round of impact on the whole market. Some air conditioning manufacturers began to implement production reduction or maintenance plans, which limited the release of output. As the temperature turns cooler, air conditioner demand is difficult to perform well. Air conditioning production fell to a low level throughout the year in October. But the fourth quarter is the peak season of air conditioning consumption, therefore, demand might still be expected to pick up.
Data Source: Mysteel
3. Copper consumption of major air conditioner brands in China
According to Mysteel survey, copper consumption of major air conditioner brands in China was 90,500 tonnes in October, including 60,300 tonnes of red copper tube and 35,800 tonnes of brass. Consumption of red copper tube and brass for household air conditioning was 41,600 tonnes and 24,400 tonnes respectively, with a decrease of 14.15% and 15.98% month on month. Consumption of red copper tube and brass for commercial air conditioning was 18,700 tonnes and 30,200 tonnes respectively, with a decrease of 13.81% and 13.35% month on month.
Copper consumption for air conditioners declined in October. Since air conditioners and refrigeration accessories manufacturers reduced to purchase and reserve of raw materials on the impact of consumption weakness and epidemic.
Data Source: Mysteel
Data Source: Mysteel
Data Source: Mysteel
Data Source: Mysteel
4. Air conditioners' production schedule for November
According to Mysteel survey, China's major air conditioners are scheduled to produce 11.57 million units in November, with an increase of 17.22% from October's production, lifting the growth rate to 2-4 percentage points. Even though all air conditioner manufacturers completed the basic maintenance and raised the production schedule, the actual output in November still needs to wait and see due to the epidemic's impact on transportation and downstream production suspension by policy control.
Data Source: Mysteel
5. Price trends of China's copper tube and bar
Copper tube prices are supported by raw material prices in short term. While market participants remain optimistic about short-term prices, there are no significant increases in trading. The long-term risk of hike interest rates and recession is still hanging over copper prices, so the height of price rebound will be limited. Demand for copper bars remains constrained by the slump in the property sector. It is highly likely that the supply of copper bars will exceed the demand in the future. Therefore, copper bars' prices will show a weak trend after the short-term narrow fluctuation.
Data Source: Mysteel
Data Source: Mysteel
For queries and more information/data/reports access, please contact Paula Xu at xuzhongping@mysteel.com