Thanks to the rising demand from prebaked anode market, China's petcoke consumption totaled 21.51 million tonnes in the first half of 2024, up 1.14 million tonnes or 5.60% year-on-year, according to OilChem.
Petcoke Downstream Consumption Proportion in H1 2024
Source: OilChem
As shown in above chart, prebaked anode market ranked first in consumption for petcoke in the first half, and its consumption accounted for 59% of the total, up 1 percentage point from a year ago. The high quality development and long-term high capacity of the downstream electrolytic aluminum industry have led to a stable demand for prebaked anode, thus driving up demand for petcoke.
Based on OilChem's data, the capacity of prebaked anode has shown an uptrend as a whole in the recent 5 years, with the compound annual growth rate of 1.74%. By the end of June 2024, the total capacity of prebaked anode reached 30.66 million tonnes/year in China, an increase of 360,000 t/y year-on-year.
2023-2024 Prebaked Anode Production
Source: OilChem
In the first half of 2024, the average operating rate of prebaked anode stood at 76.56%, up 2.30 percentage points from last year. The total production exceeded 11.44 million tonnes, an increase of 6.87% year-on-year. Along with the release of new capacity, the monthly production of prebaked anode increased by 2%-12% year-on-year, especially since the second quarter, the figure maintained about 1.90 million tonnes, on improved demand from electrolytic aluminium market, OilChem's data showed.
Prebaked Anode Theoretical Profits
Source: OilChem
However, the profit of prebaked anode slipped in the first half of the year. Although the feedstock petcoke price continued to fall, the price of coal pitch, another major feedstock, went higher, leading to an increase in costs. In addition, downstream electrolytic aluminium factories were reluctant to lower purchasing prices, resulted in a decline in profits. According to OilChem, the average profit of prebaked anode was Yuan -43.05/t in H1 2024, down 111.87% year-on-year. Due to continued fall in both costs and downstream purchasing prices, the profit is predicted to jump to surpass Yuan 100/t in July.
Looking ahead, the prebaked anode demand is estimated to improve in the second half, on increasing capacity utilization rates and production resumption of electrolytic aluminium enterprises, so the consumption for petcoke might continue to rise, and proportion is likely to occupy 59%-60%.
Written by Catherine Sun, sss@oilchem.net
Edited by Aggie Hu, huchenying@mysteel.com
