Guinea's red earth rolls on: Bauxite exports race toward 200 mln t in 2026

In the first three months of 2025, Guinea exported 48.6 million tonnes of bauxite - nearly 40 per cent more than in the same period a year before. Mines ran at full capacity, and long-awaited port expansions finally began to show results, easing the delays that once choked exports.

By the end of September, total shipments reached 139.21 million tonnes. That included 99.8 million tonnes in the first half and 39.41 million tonnes in the third quarter - about a 23 per cent increase year-on-year. To hit the 199-million-tonne goal for the full year, producers needed to move roughly 59.8 million tonnes in the last quarter. Is it ambitious? yes, but not unrealistic.

Infrastructure and policy

The year 2025 proved Guinea could break records, and it also showed that the country could build the backbone to support them. Across the Boké region, construction crews worked nonstop - widening roads, extending rail links, and modernising terminals to maintain the growth graph.

In a single year, Guinea almost doubled its port capacity, expanding from five operational terminals to nine. Key hubs - Kamsar, Boké, Dapilon, and Katougouma - underwent major overhauls that cut waiting times and spead up loading. What once felt like an overburdened network now look like a system finally catching up with demand.

Also, the country no longer wants to send all its ore abroad unprocessed. Projects such as China's State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC) alumina refinery, backed by new regulatory clarity, signal that Guinea intends to refine more of its own minerals before shipping them out.

Projects defining the next chapter

A string of large infrastructure projects will keep Guinea's logistics momentum going well into 2026.

Dapilon Line modernisation

Six mining companies - CDM China, Ashapura Minechem, SMB, Cambia Mining, Dynamic Mining, and TBA - are collaborating to overhaul the Dapilon corridor. The project aims to add 50 million tonnes of capacity, reduce haulage costs, and improve reliability. Once finished, it's expected to serve as a regional transport hub built on ESG principles.

Dapilon–Santou Rail project

This 135-kilometre railway connects Santou's mines to the Port of Dapilon. It forms part of the SMB-Winning Consortium's USD 3 billion investment plan, which also includes a refinery and new mining licenses. With 23 bridges, two tunnels, and six depots, the line opens up new zones and strengthens Guinea's export corridor. Future plans include linking it to the national rail system for wider access.

Ashapura Minechem–China railway partnership

At the Boffa bauxite site, holding more than 200 million tonnes of reserves, Ashapura Minechem and China Railway have teamed up to boost output. China Railway handles logistics and port development, while Ashapura focuses on sustainability and community engagement - a model of balanced growth.

 Port integration and expansion

By the end of 2025, nine active ports were in operation. Upgrades will continue in 2026, alongside new road and rail connections, ensuring Guinea can handle higher volumes without congestion returning.

China's role grows deeper

China's link with Guinea's bauxite industry keeps getting stronger. In the first five months of 2025, Chinese aluminium output rose about 4 per cent, thanks to a revival in construction and manufacturing. That uptick sent smelters looking for steady raw material supplies - and Guinea was ready to deliver.

Established players such as Société Minière de Boké (SMB) and Chalco drove much of the export growth. Alongside them, newer entrants - AGB2A, Dynamic Mining, and AMC - added volume and competition, broadening the sector's base.

This cooperation is expected to deepen through 2026. The SPIC refinery, under construction now, will be the country's largest - capable of processing 1.2 million tonnes of alumina each year and powered by a 250 MW plant. Completion is expected by late 2027.

At the same time, Chalco's USD 700 million Boffa expansion and Henan International Mining's Garafiri concession are on track to start production in or after 2026, giving Guinea both more capacity and better processing depth.

Outside of mining, China is also involved in reshaping Guinea's maritime infrastructure. Work has begun on West Africa's largest shipyard, located near Boké. The site will handle shipbuilding, repairs, and marine equipment manufacturing, with phased operations likely to start within two years of 2025.

By the end of 2026, the region's connectivity should improve further once the Praia–Dakar maritime link - part of the wider Praia–Dakar–Abidjan transport corridor - becomes operational. The route is expected to cut transport times and help Guinea's exports flow more efficiently to global markets.

2026 Outlook: Steady, focused, and resilient

For 2026, expectations are high but grounded. Forecasts suggest exports will exceed 180 million tonnes, with a realistic chance of crossing 200 million tonnes if global demand stays strong.

The risks - fluctuating prices, weather delays, or logistical hiccups - are still there. But Guinea now has a stronger base than ever before. Years of investment, improved infrastructure, and clearer governance have given the industry a level of resilience it once lacked.