GCC aluminum output down 2.9% in first ten months as the region shifts to new bauxite suppliers post-Guinea ban

Across the Gulf, the primary aluminum and alumina sector has been moving at a noticeably different pace this year. Aluminium output across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has been edging lower through 2025, a trend that becomes clear once the latest numbers are lined up against last year's. In the first ten months, smelters produced 5,128 thousand tonnes, compared with 5,282 thousand tonnes in the same period of 2024 roughly a 2.9 per cent drop. Many operators sensed the shift even before the figures confirmed it, as daily output that once hovered around 17.217.5 thousand tonnes last year has settled closer to 16.717.0 thousand tonnes in 2025.

Quarterly numbers confirm it. Q1 settled at 1.52 million tonnes compared with 1.58 million tonnes last year same period, and the daily averages followed the same direction, easing back to around 16.8–17.0 thousand tonnes instead of the 17.3–17.5 range of 2024.

Q2 didn't break the pattern, finishing at 1.53 million tonnes against 1.57 million tonnes a year earlier, with daily output sliding into the 16.8–16.9 thousand-tonne band. Q3 mirrored it as well, at 1.54 million tonnes instead of 1,587 thousand tonnes; daily rates fell from roughly 17.2–17.3 thousand tonnes to about 16.7–16.9.

Even October stayed in step with the rest of the year. Production reached 525 thousand tonnes, down from 541 thousand tonnes, and the daily rate eased from 17.5 to roughly 16.9 thousand tonnes. The drop show how the region has been affected with Guinea's decision.

Al Taweelah adjusts after Guinea disrupts the bauxite link

The alumina segment also shifted. At Al Taweelah, the UAE's alumina refinery, production in the first half of 2025 reached 1.14 million tonnes. In H1 2024, it was 1.22 million tonnes. The refinery ended 2024 at 2.54 million tonnes, continuing a streak of outperforming its two-million-tonne nameplate capacity every year since its start-up in 2019.

The turning point came in Guinea. In October 2024, the government suspended exports from Emirates Global Aluminum's subsidiary, Guinea Alumina Corporation. Officials cited unpaid customs duties and delays linked to the planned two-million-tonne-per-year alumina plant. What looked temporary escalated quickly. By May 2025, Guinea had begun revoking GAC's licence, and on 6 August 2025 the 690 km² mining concession - containing about 400 million tonnes of reserves - was transferred to Nimba Mining SA. Before the halt, GAC exported 14 million tonnes of bauxite in 2023 and 10.8 million tonnes in 2024, but once shipments stopped, roughly two million tonnes accumulated at Kamsar port with nowhere to go.

With its main source gone, Al Taweelah had to pivot. EGA modified the refinery so it could take bauxite from other suppliers. Australia became the principal replacement, and Turkey added supplementary volumes. In June 2025, EGA also moved to secure future supply by signing an agreement with the Ghana Integrated Aluminum Development Corporation, exploring long-term offtake and potential cooperation on port and rail infrastructure as Ghana's industry expands.

In parallel, a debottlenecking upgrade at Al Taweelah added a third ball mill to the two already in use. The mill supports the grinding stage before chemical processing, helping improve throughput and limit unplanned stoppages. EGA carried out the entire project - design, engineering and commissioning - in-house. The work took under two and a half years and totalled more than 650,000 hours without a Lost Time Injury. In 2024, the refinery met 49 per cent of EGA's alumina needs, underlining its importance inside the company's supply chain.

Australia and Turkey fill the gap

With Guinea off the table, the GCC had to rethink where its bauxite would come from. Until late 2024, the region barely touched Australian bauxite and that changed with EGA's exit. Early in 2025, about 2.9 million tonnes of Australian bauxite entered GCC-linked supply routes. It marks a noticeable shift but not a full swap - most Australian exports still head toward China and Asian buyers. Even so, Australia's global shipments rose by roughly 1.4–3.5 per cent in 2025 as demand redirected following Guinea's instability.

Turkey's role also expanded. In 2024, GCC countries imported around 356,000 tonnes of bauxite, and 45 per cent of that - roughly USD 24 million in value - came from Turkey. The country produced 4.6 million tonnes of bauxite in 2024 and exported about 4.3 million tonnes, with a significant share going to Middle Eastern buyers. Between 2013 and 2024, Turkey's bauxite exports grew at a compound annual rate of nearly 31 per cent. Saudi Arabia, which accounts for 76 per cent of GCC bauxite consumption, remains Turkey's largest customer in the region.

After Guinea revoked GAC's licence, GCC buyers leaned more heavily on Turkish supply. Turkey's exportable volume expanded too. Its global exports are expected to rise from 3.37 million tonnes in 2024 to roughly 3.78 million tonnes in 2025. This gave GCC aluminum producers an important additional route at a moment when they had to diversify fast.

The GCC aluminum sector is in a transition period. Production hasn't stalled and plants are still running steadily, but the system isn't operating under the same conditions it enjoyed when Guinea was the backbone of its bauxite supply. Australia and Turkey have stepped in where they can, and Al Taweelah has proven adaptable, yet the region is still learning how to work with this new mix of inputs.

Note: This article is published in accordance with an article exchange agreement between Mysteel and AL Circle.