After creating the historical low in 2024, China's electrolytic cobalt prices are projected to remain soft in the year ahead, on the backdrop of persistent oversupply, Mysteel's analysis showed.
Looking back on 2024, the electrolytic cobalt prices moved downward throughout the year, except for temporary rebounds amidst bullish news. Mysteel electrolytic cobalt (Co≥99.8%) spot price showed that the price hit the bottom on September 9, 2024 at Yuan 168,500/tonne, down 27.84% from the annual high registered on May 28.
Source: Mysteel
The electrolytic cobalt prices lacking momentum was primarily due to the persistent oversupply. First, booming copper prices significantly fueled the mining activities in DR Congo, and the cobalt production went up as an associated mineral in copper mines. In addition, the HPAL hydrometallurgy project in Indonesia also contributed to the cobalt supply as a by-product.
On the demand side, the growth in China's ternary battery sector fell significantly behind that of LFP battery in 2024, in addition to a gradual slowdown in the development of the whole electric vehicle (EV) market, which aggravated the supply surplus in the cobalt segment.
Source: Mysteel
Despite the slowing EV market, the overall demand for cobalt is projected to keep rising thanks to technology advancing and pursuit of sustainable materials, and it is projected that the global cobalt consumption will add up to approximately 268,300 tonnes by 2027, up 17.1% from 2024.
Nevertheless, the cobalt prices are estimated to remain soft in 2025 with the market continuously challenged by oversupply with the additional supply coming from several new mining projects likely to come on stream in DR Congo, Indonesia's MHP projects that are to reach full capacity, and recycled cobalt materials after the recycling projects start commissioning.
Written by Aggie Hu, huchenying@mysteel.com
Should you wish to know about China's cobalt market fundamentals and estimate, send us an email at inquiries@mysteel.com
