Germany leads global aluminum foil exports in 2025 while China falls out of top 5

From January to May 2025, Germany led the market with a trade value of USD 770 million and an export of 117.14 thousand tonnes, followed by Italy at USD 362 million and 61.69 thousand tonnes, the USA at USD 308 million and 56.09 thousand tonnes, Turkiye at USD 265 million and 61.29 thousand tonnes, and Japan at USD 245 million and 27.64 thousand tonnes.

In contrast, during January to May 2024, China dominated the market with USD 1,476 million and an export of 479.44 thousand tonnes, while Germany stood second at USD 621 million and 117.17 thousand tonnes, followed by the USA at USD 235 million and 47.22 thousand tonnes, Italy at USD 205 million and 55.57 thousand tonnes, and Turkiye at USD 137 million and 55.20 thousand tonnes.

Who gained, who lost and by how much

Year-on-year in value, Germany rose by 23.96 per cent, Italy surged by 76.59 per cent, the USA expanded by 31.06 per cent, and Turkiye almost doubled with a 93.43 per cent increase. Japan entered the top five in 2025, and China, fell out after leading in 2024.

In volumes, Germany remained unchanged, moving from 117.17 thousand tonnes to 117.14 thousand tonnes, Italy grew by around 11 per cent, Turkiye grew by around 11 per cent, and the USA expanded by 18.77 per cent. China's 2024 total of 479.44 thousand tonnes dropped out of the top ranks in 2025.

Drivers behind the shake-up: policy, supply and sustainability

Several factors are included in this dramatic shift. China's Ministry of Finance ended export tax rebates for aluminum products starting December 1, 2024, which raised export costs for Chinese foil makers and made their products less price-competitive, contributing to an immediate decline in exports. Supply chain disruptions, stricter regulations, or temporary export curbs likely compounded China's decline, creating space for others to expand.

Germany and Italy capitalised on that opening. Germany leads the 2025 market in part because its broader aluminum market was valued at around USD 556 billion in 2024 and because of a strong manufacturing base with major producers such as Alunorf, Norsk Hydro and Novelis. Germany benefits from scale, technological innovation and steady demand from sectors including food packaging, pharmaceuticals, electronics and automotive.

Italy's sharp growth reflects investments in capacity expansion and sustainable manufacturing, and the country's strength in high-quality food packaging foils.

The USA's growth was supported by strong domestic demand in food packaging, pharmaceuticals and electric vehicle battery supply chains, aided by R&D and recycling investments. Turkiye nearly doubled export value by leveraging competitive production costs and proximity to European and Middle Eastern markets, while Japan's entry in 2025 reflects a move toward high-value, precision foil products for pharmaceuticals and electronics and the advantage of regional trade linkages.

Trade policy shifts and regional pacts such as the India-UK Free Trade Agreement also made European suppliers more competitive. Sustainability-driven buying patterns gave an edge to exporters investing in greener production, helping Italy and Turkiye attract larger orders. The combined effect of policy change, supply reorientation, product quality and sustainability pushed Germany and Italy into firm positions while other rankings shifted markedly across the global aluminum foil market.