Egg market poised for steady gains, but upside remains limited

Entering late March 2026, China's domestic egg market remains mired in a deadlock characterized by the tug-of-war between supply and demand, coupled with a balancing act between costs and consumption.

As of March 23, the average price of eggs in major production areas in China stood at Yuan 3.29/jin, an increase of Yuan 0.25/jin from the beginning of the month, or a rise of 8.22%. With the Qingming Festival approaching, whether traditional holiday stocking up can break the current impasse has become the core focus of the market.

According to Mysteel's analysis, the egg prices are likely to show a steady but modestly strong trend with minor fluctuations before the Qingming Festival considering the current market fundamentals, seasonal patterns, and the multifaceted games at play. The overall increase will be limited, with no significant spikes expected, as prices fluctuate narrowly around the cost of production.

The layer farming industry experienced sustained losses since the first half of 2025, leading to low willingness among farmers to restock. Commercial chick sales declined continuously. Based on the layer breeding cycle, the current stock of layers in production has slightly decreased month-on-month, with a limited number of newly laying hens. Overall supply remains stable.

In terms of culled hens, the current culling age is relatively low, and with expectations of rising egg prices, farmers feel no urgency to cull, maintaining a steady overall culling pace. Overall, the current total stock of layers in production remains higher than during the same period last year, and market supply is not tight, instead, it is only experiencing a temporary relative tightness.

Stocking up for Qingming is the core driver pushing egg prices higher. On one hand, eggs, as an essential offering for Qingming Festival, see a steady increase in demand. On the other hand, supermarkets, community group-buying platforms, and food processing companies have started holiday stocking in advance, with centralized replenishment demand continuing to support market conditions.

Rising feed costs have strengthened farmers' resolve to support prices. Recently, prices of major feed ingredients such as corn and soybean meal have risen slightly, steadily pushing up the cost of layer farming and further compressing profit margins for farmers. Supported by production costs, farmers are increasingly inclined to hold back sales, showing less willingness to sell at low prices. They widely anticipate that the pre-holiday consumption season will drive prices higher and are proactively controlling the volume of goods they release, providing favorable support for price increases.

In the short term, egg prices are likely to remain steady with a modestly strong trend, experiencing minor fluctuations upward. Currently, the egg market benefits from a supportive structure of recovering demand, stable supply, and cost support. The overarching trend for prices is one of steady strength with upward fluctuations. However, due to ample overall supply and expectations of a post-holiday pullback, the price increase will be limited, and a significant rally is unlikely. Going forward, close attention should be paid to weather changes in major production areas, fluctuations in egg production rates, and the price trends of feed ingredients.