Egg prices with upward bias in Apr on steady demand recovery

In April 2026, China's egg market is entering a critical phase of supply-demand interplay. Supply-side pressure is expected to ease slightly compared to March, while demand is likely to pick up steadily. The market is expected to operate with stable supply, rising demand, and strengthening sentiment.

Egg Supply Remains Stable

Newly laying hens in April primarily originate from chick placements in December 2025. The egg market experienced deep losses throughout 2025, which kept chick placements persistently below year-ago levels in the fourth quarter of 2025. However, December saw a modest recovery in placements compared to November. As a result, while the number of newly laying hens in April 2025 remains relatively low, it is still slightly higher than in March.

Meanwhile, chicks placed in the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to gradually enter the culling window around the Labor Day holiday in 2026, contributing to a steady release of elimination volumes. Hens that underwent forced molting after the 2026 Chinese New Year will progressively move into peak laying phases.

Nevertheless, with in-laying hen inventories still high and warmer weather expected to boost laying rates in April 2026, overall egg supply is projected to remain relatively stable, with supply-side pressure easing slightly compared to March.

Holiday Consumption Supports Steady Demand Recovery

In April, seasonal promotions for the Qingming Festival and Labor Day holiday 2026 will continue to support terminal egg sales, serving as a key demand driver. Demand from schools, enterprises, and institutional canteens remains stable, while downstream food processing demand is gradually returning to normal. Spring is also driving continued recovery in the catering and tourism industries.

With multiple demand factors converging, total egg demand in April is expected to maintain steady recovery, with terminal turnover efficiency further improving. On the demand side, the outlook is positive driven by holiday consumption, resilient fundamentals, and improving distribution channels.

Improved Sentiment, More Active Trading

The egg market did not experience a deep downturn in the first quarter; instead, it showed signs of periodic rebounds, raising expectations for second-quarter performance.

At present, as inventory pressure on farms gradually eases, the farming enterprises' reluctance to sell is growing, along with hopes of higher prices. However, rising temperatures in April will significantly shorten egg storage life. Combined with increased rainfall in southern China regions, traders may adopt a more cautious purchasing approach but are likely to turn over inventory more frequently. Overall, market trading activity is expected to improve.

In April, supply-demand dynamics in the egg market are moving toward balance. Supply-side pressure is moderating, demand is recovering steadily, and market sentiment is leaning optimistic. Going forward, attention should focus on two key variables.

First, the stronger-than-expected holiday stocking ahead of the Labor Day holiday could drive egg prices higher in a volatile pattern. Meanwhile, persistent heat and rain may disrupt distribution and cause short-term market dislocations.

Overall, egg prices in April are expected to show a stable to firmer trend. Coordinated strength from both supply and demand should help guide the egg market through a period of relative stability.