Chinese egg prices likely to pull back after the holiday

Since the start of June, China's domestic egg prices have continued to rise, supported by supply shortage and pre-Dragon Boat Festival holiday stocking. As of June 11, 2026, the average weekly egg price in major producing regions in China stood at Yuan 5.14/kg, with spot prices fluctuating at high levels during the week.

However, supply is expected to enter a phase of rapid recovery soon. The number of newly laying hens increased month-on-month in February 2026, while the volume of culled hens continued to slow through May and June, pointing to a rapid rebound in the overall laying hen inventory. At the same time, as the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, food factories are wrapping up their stocking activities. While domestic sales in northern regions remain stable, egg prices are likely to decline after the festival with schools on holiday and demand softening.

According to Mysteel, the national laying hen inventory was estimated at around 1.29 billion birds by end-May and is gradually recovering, with further increases expected in June.

On the supply side, newly laying hens in June mainly originate from chicks purchased around February 2026. Mysteel data shows that February chick purchases rose by approximately 13.80% month-on-month, already exceeding the average purchase level of previous years. Notably, purchases of both red and pink chicks increased in February. ("Red chicks" refer to breeds that produce brown-shelled eggs, while "pink chicks" refer to breeds that produce white-shelled eggs.)

As of now, the number of newly laying hens significantly exceeds the number of culled hens, with a notable increase in small eggs and a narrowing price gap between small-size and large-size eggs. Consequently, the national laying hen inventory is expected to continue rising through May-June, and the supply gap is likely to close quickly.

On the culling and slaughtering side, following the modest pullback in egg prices, culled hen prices have dropped even more sharply. However, slaughterhouse operating rates remain low. On the one hand, slaughtering companies are constrained by high live hen prices despite the pullback. On the other hand, breeding farms are willing to continue extending the laying cycle, leading to a sales stalemate. The volume of culled hens is unlikely to increase meaningfully in the short term. The fact that egg prices are fluctuating at high levels has further stimulated farmers' enthusiasm for raising hens.

Taken together, the current high egg prices are the result of supply tightness and pre-holiday stockpiling. After the Dragon Boat Festival, weakening demand, the rainy season, and stronger supply relative to demand are likely to weigh on current high egg prices. Egg prices may face a relatively quick correction in the short term. Attention should still be paid to changes in slaughtering operations, spot market conditions, and inventory levels.