China's refined copper imports and exports showed a divergent pattern in May 2026. Imports increased both month on month and year on year, supported by intermittent import arbitrage opportunities and the arrival of previously scheduled cargoes. In contrast, exports continued to decline as widespread smelter maintenance and raw material shortages constrained export availability.
China's refined copper imports reached 281,400 tonnes in May 2026, rising by 4.74% month on month and by 10.15% year on year, according to the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC). During January to May, China imported 1.1373 million tonnes of refined copper, growing by 15.31% year on year.
Data Source: GACC, Mysteel
During parts of May, a profitable import arbitrage window encouraged importers to actively bring refined copper into China. In addition, shipments from Japan and South Korea arranged earlier arrived successively, increasing the volume of customs-cleared refined copper entering the domestic market.
The top five sources of refined copper imports during the month were the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Russia, Zambia, Japan, and South Korea. Owing to the fluctuating progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations, transportation efficiency and delivery schedules for non-registered and off-specification cargoes from Africa remained subject to delays and uncertainty. Meanwhile, sulfur supply constraints at hydrometallurgical smelters in Africa continued to disrupt production, resulting in a month-on-month decline in imports from Africa. In contrast, China's imports of non-registered refined copper brands from Russia increased notably from the previous month.
Looking ahead, China's refined copper imports are expected to decline in June. Driven by expectations of U.S. import tariffs on refined copper, the COMEX-LME arbitrage spread widened during June, prompting some traders to continue redirecting cargoes to the U.S. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations persisted throughout June, which is likely to impact the volume of cargoes arrived at Chinese ports. In addition, China's import arbitrage remained largely unfavorable for most of the month, offering limited opportunities for profitable imports.With copper prices staying at relatively elevated levels, downstream consumers have shown limited ability to absorb higher costs, and traders are likely to remain cautious on imports.
Data Source: LME, SHFE, Mysteel
China's refined copper exports reached 19,900 tonnes in May 2026, dropping by 22.45% month on month and by 41.14% year on year, according to the GACC. However, exports during January to May totaled 275,200 tonnes, growing by 23.35% year on year.
May's exports were primarily constrained by limited supply, as the ongoing peak maintenance season among Chinese smelters and tight raw material availability led to production disruptions. Meanwhile, the export arbitrage window remained largely closed, providing little incentive for additional export activity. Consequently, refined copper exports continued to be dominated by long-term contract shipments in May, with overall export incentive limited.
Data Source: GACC, Mysteel
Entering June, China's export arbitrage window opened intermittently, creating more favorable conditions for exports. Meanwhile, spot discounts in the domestic market prompted some smelters to increase their export plans for more profits. As a result, refined copper exports are expected to rise. However, a relatively large number of domestic smelters remained under maintenance during the month, with raw material tightness persisting, constraining overall refined copper output. Consequently, some smelters have only modestly increased export volumes to ensure sufficient supply for both long-term contract shipments and spot sales. According to Mysteel's survey, refined copper exports from 58 sample Chinese smelters are expected to reach 55,000-60,000 tonnes in June.
Overall, China's refined copper trade balance is expected to tighten in June. Imports are likely to decline due to unfavorable import arbitrage conditions, cargo diversions to the U.S., and logistical uncertainties, while exports are projected to increase modestly as export opportunities improve. However, persistent smelter maintenance and raw material shortages will continue to constrain export growth. As a result, China's net refined copper imports are expected to narrow compared with May, although the country will remain a significant net importer of refined copper.
Written by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
