China's upstream and midstream copper product imports diverged in July 2026, though none of them helped ease tight supply in the domestic market. Imports of copper concentrate and scrap edged up month on month, while refined copper imports fell notably. The increase in raw material imports offered only limited relief to smelters' tight feedstock supply, whereas the reduction in refined copper imports directly tightened spot availability, supporting copper prices and spot premiums. Looking ahead, this divergence is unlikely to reverse quickly. Concentrate supply remains structurally tight, imported scrap cannot fully compensate for weak domestic circulation, and refined copper imports may stay subdued while exports pick up. China's refined copper spot supply is thus expected to tighten further in the near term, with the strength of peak-season demand and U.S. tariff policy becoming the key variables.
Raw material imports improve but smelter feedstock stays tight
China imported about 2,379,000 tonnes of copper concentrate in July 2026, up by 1.9% month on month but still down by 7.1% year on year. The year-on-year decline is less a reflection of weak Chinese demand than of the limited availability of concentrate. Falling output in major source countries, unstable trading conditions and trade policy changes in some countries weighed on China's concentrate imports, with July imports from Chile, Peru and the DRC down by 13.46%, 6.77% and 77.67% year on year, respectively. To fill the gap, Chinese smelters and importers have adjusted their sourcing structure, with imports from neighboring overland suppliers rising. In July, concentrate imports from Mongolia and Russia rose by 3.72% and 124.22%, respectively. However, given China's extremely high import dependence on copper concentrate, the year-on-year decline in imports has kept refined copper feedstock supply in persistent shortage. According to Mysteel's survey, spot TC for 25% clean copper concentrate fell by another $34.67/dmt from end-June to -$159.67/dmt as of July 31, underscoring just how tight the concentrate market remains.
Data source: GACC, Mysteel
The picture is similar for copper scrap, although for different reasons. China imported 219,100 tonnes of copper scrap in July, up by 3.9% month on month and by 15.3% year on year, despite the severe import loss of Yuan 850.81/tonne.China's reverse-invoicing policy has left many downstream enterprises with limited or even zero invoicing quotas to purchase scrap, while the circulation of tax-excluded scrap is restricted. The resulting tightness in domestic scrap circulation has underpinned strong demand for taxed, imported scrap, hence the notable month-on-month and year-on-year increases in imports.
Yet the increase in imports should not be interpreted as evidence of an improving domestic scrap supply situation. According to Mysteel's survey of 20 scrap-purchasing companies, their copper scrap inventories stood at 6,300 tonnes as of July 31, down by 2,750 tonnes from end-2025 and at a historical low for the period. With copper scrap prices high and volumes scarce, capacity utilization among scrap-based anode plate producers declined to 33.73% at end-July, down 10.88 percentage points from the mid-January peak, aggravating the refined copper feedstock shortage, according to Mysteel's data.
Data source: GACC, Mysteel
The year-on-year decline in copper concentrate imports, together with the negligible contribution of copper scrap imports to bridging the domestic scrap gap, notably dampened smelters' production. Capacity utilization among surveyed Chinese smelters fell by 3.07 percentage points month on month to 78.5% in July, with utilization at concentrate-based capacity down by 3.67 percentage points to 85.56% while scrap-based utilization down by 0.81 percentage point to 51.98%.
Data source: Mysteel
Falling refined copper imports directly tighten domestic availability
The reduction in net refined copper imports in July directly intensified the tightness in China's refined copper spot supply. China imported 243,000 tonnes of refined copper in July 2026, down by 14% month on month and by 18.6% year on year, while exports stood at 34,800 tonnes, down by 28.1% month on month and by 70.6% year on year. According to Mysteel's survey, the loss on China's refined copper import trade narrowed from an average of -Yuan 461/tonne in June to -Yuan 196/tonne in July.
Data source: SHFE, LME, Mysteel
Despite the improvement in import economics, import flows remained weak. Higher copper prices, relatively soft downstream consumption and limited importer willingness to clear cargoes through customs weighed on arrivals. Lingering port congestion and reduced handling efficiency added another constraint. At the same time, refined copper continued to be drawn toward the North American market amid expectations surrounding U.S. tariff policy. Although China's refined copper exports remained relatively modest in July, the combination of weaker imports and continued overseas tightness reduced the amount of copper available to the domestic market.As a result, China's net refined copper imports declined by 11.1% month on month to 208,000 tonnes in July.
Data source: GACC, Mysteel
The impact was quickly reflected in inventory. With limited arrivals of domestic sources and slower inflow of imported copper, spot supply tightened in July and refined copper retail inventory in China declined sharply, falling from 212,800 tonnes at end-June to 124,600 tonnes at end-July.
Data source: Mysteel
China's spot copper tightness unlikely to ease through foreign trades
The outlook for the next few months suggests little immediate relief on either the raw-material or refined copper side.
For copper concentrate, global supply growth is expected to be limited as ore grades at mature mines decline and new mines take time to ramp up. A substantial increase in tradable concentrate is unlikely in the near term, so China's concentrate imports are unlikely to increase substantially.
By contrast, the constraints of the reverse-invoicing policy on China's scrap sector will be hard to ease in the near term, and invoice shortages are likely to intensify, keeping demand for imported scrap strong. According to Mysteel's research, even amid sharply higher copper prices, the domestic selling discount for imported bright copper has essentially stayed within Yuan 2,000/tonne with limited fluctuations, indicating high market acceptance of imported scrap. In addition, Mysteel survey data show scrap import losses narrowed in August, with the trade occasionally turning profitable and reaching as much as Yuan 673/tonne. Consequently, China's copper scrap imports are expected to remain elevated, likely above 200,000 tonnes in August. Nevertheless, imported scrap is unlikely to fill the domestic supply shortfall. Overall, with concentrate imports slowing and scrap imports unable to bridge the domestic gap, the feedstock squeeze at smelters is expected to persist.
Data source: Mysteel
On refined copper imports, the import window has closed recently as import parity deteriorated sharply in late July and the first half of August. Higher prices within the month, relatively weak downstream consumption and importers' limited willingness to clear goods through customs, compounded by lingering congestion at some ports and constrained handling efficiency, point to lower refined copper imports in August. In contrast, with the export window open, smelters have markedly expanded export plans, and Mysteel's survey suggests August exports could reach 67,000-70,000 tonnes. With imports falling and exports rising, China's refined copper spot supply is expected to tighten further in the near term.
Regarding September and October, import trade demand are expected to improve with the arrival of China's traditional consumption peak-season, and smelters' output will remain constrained by feedstock shortages and maintenance, both of which should lend support to refined copper imports. However, until U.S. tariff policies become clearer, refined copper flows will keep being directed to the North American market, so a significant rebound in China's refined copper imports is unlikely. The key variables to watch going forward are the strength of China's consumption recovery during the peak season and the progress of U.S. refined copper import tariff policy.
More regular analysis and comprehensive data on China's copper industry are available in Mysteel Copper Weekly, Mysteel Copper Monthly, and Mysteel Copper Database. Reach out to us via Mysteel's official website: Latest & Reliable Copper Market Price in China | Mysteel, and follow Mysteel Non-Ferrous for more insights!
Written by Zhaorui Cui, cuizhaorui@mysteel.com
Edited by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
