China's refined copper trade flows showed divergent trends in June, with imports remaining relatively resilient, while exports surged temporarily due to a brief export window. Looking ahead, amid rising domestic premiums and tighter spot supply, China's refined copper imports and exports may trend lower in July.
China's refined copper imports reached 282,500 tonnes in June 2026, rising by 0.4% month on month but down by 6.32% year on year, according to the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC). During January to June, China imported 1.4199 million tonnes of refined copper, growing by 18.30% year on year.
Source: GACC, Mysteel
During June, China's refined copper import arbitrage improved occasionally, while the mid-year financial settlement period also prompted some traders to accelerate imports and sales to improve cash flow, resulting in slightly higher customs-cleared import volumes. Meanwhile, the share of non-standard copper inflows from regions such as Russia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) continued to increase, with such materials circulating relatively quickly due to their price advantages. However, recurring uncertainties surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflicts at the Middle East led to delays in some cargo arrivals and vessel schedules. As a result, domestic refined copper imports failed to see a significant increase overall.
Looking ahead, as potential U.S. import tariffs on refined copper remain uncertain, the COMEX copper premium persists, leading the U.S. market to continue to divert copper from Africa, South America, and Asia. Some arriving shipments and bonded warehouse refined copper in China have also been redirected to overseas markets. Meanwhile, recent impact of adverse weather such as typhoon and recurring uncertainties surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflicts may further affect import cargo arrival schedules. Consequently, global spot copper availability is tight, with shipments under potential disruptions, limiting China's imports and pushing Yangshan port import copper premium to a record-high level recently. However, elevated domestic spot premiums and import premiums have also encouraged some LME inventory and bonded warehouse inventory to flow back into China, though such additional supply is expected to be relatively limited. Overall, China's refined copper imports are expected to decline in July.
China's refined copper exports reached 48,500 tonnes in June 2026, surging by 151.36% month on month but dropping by 38.61% year on year, according to the GACC. Exports during January to June totaled 323,700 tonnes, growing by 7.14% year on year.
Source: GACC, Mysteel
June's significant month-on-month increase was mainly driven by the temporary opening of China's export window. Meanwhile, limited domestic downstream consumption during the current demand off-season also prompted Chinese smelters to increase export plans.
Looking ahead, China's refined copper export window is unlikely to stay open in July. Meanwhile, following the completion of mid-year financial settlements and with copper prices stabilizing, downstream enterprises have increased procurement, coupled with high domestic spot premiums, likely dampening smelters' export incentives. In addition, ongoing tightness in copper concentrate supply and invoice-related constraints affecting secondary copper producers have disrupted smelters' access to raw materials, combined with persisting maintenance, China's refined copper output may continue declining year on year in July, further constraining supply available for exports. Overall, China's refined copper exports are also expected to decline in July.
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Written by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
