Copper prices slightly dropped in futures markets on September 23, while increased in China's spot market. With macroeconomic factors mixed and the fundamentals strong, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at elevated levels in the near term.
China's refined copper spot trading saw limited growth on September 23, mainly due to increased imported copper arrivals. Spot premiums across major markets remained elevated on tight supply, generally above Yuan 1,000/tonne, which notably suppressed downstream procurement and pre-holiday stockpiling.
The China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT), composed of China's major copper smelters, decided not to set a TC/RC guidance for the fourth quarter of 2026. This marks the seventh consecutive quarter in which the CSPT has not published this indicator, suggesting that a fixed TC/RC value can no longer accurately reflect the rapidly changing copper concentrate spot market due to extremely tight supply. The spot market sees transactions increasingly conducted through index-linked pricing with deductions, with sellers dominating the market, and smelters mostly purchasing based on immediate needs.
Trading in China's copper semis markets weakened on September 23, as the upcoming holidays and elevated raw material prices suppressed market sentiment. End-users' pre-holiday stockpiling was generally mediocre, reflecting the slowly recovering demand and caution under high costs. Overall, the market is gradually entering the holiday mode.
