On September 24, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract for November delivery decreased by 0.10% by the end of Thursday's daytime trading and rose by 0.02% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 24,230/tonne as of 1 a.m. Monday, September 28, 2026.
Trump's easing of fuel-economy standards and repeal of the EV mandate directly weaken the U.S. market's electric-vehicle transition expectations. Since automotive lightweighting has been one of the key drivers of aluminum demand growth in recent years, this trims the long-term incremental demand story for global aluminum, especially weighing on forward demand expectations for high-end automotive aluminum sheet.
At the same time, Fed officials signal a hawkish backdrop: Schmid says the inflation problem is not yet solved, while Hammack suggests the rise in Treasury yields does not reflect loss of confidence in inflation control. As a result, the dollar and real rates stay elevated, which pressures the valuations of dollar-denominated commodities including aluminum from the financial-attribute side.
On September 24, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 24,240/tonne, remained stable from the previous day; in South China Yuan 24,500/tonne, down Yuan 20/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 24,150/tonne, remained stable from the previous day.
SHFE aluminum opened higher but then pulled back in early trading last Thursday, fluctuating within a range. The East China spot market performed well, with inventories in East China continuing to draw down sharply. Holders grew more confident about the upside ahead and held offers firm, while the basis steadily moved higher. Tight balance in spot circulation coupled with limited aluminum price volatility supported strong restocking by downstream plants on rigid demand. Traders' buying sentiment also improved, with greater willingness to enter the market for procurement, making for an active overall trading atmosphere.
As the holiday approaches, sellers have been active in offloading cargoes to cash out, but the South China market basis remains elevated. Intermediaries mainly bought on discounts to fulfill contracts, while downstream end-users maintained just-in-time restocking on rigid demand, with overall trading volume described as moderate.
The fundamental resilience remains strong. Domestic traders' inventories of aluminum ingots fell to 642,000 tonnes, a weekly destocking of 56,000 tonnes, while LME inventories remain near historic lows. Downstream processing enterprises' operating rates have rebounded, cumulative aluminum product exports have increased year-on-year, and restocking demand ahead of the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays continues to be released.
In summary, macro headwinds and low inventories coupled with peak-season destocking are offsetting each other, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the near term.
