On October 8, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract for November delivery decreased by 2.15% by the end of Thursday's daytime trading and fell by 1.55% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 23,220/tonne as of 1 a.m. Friday, October 9, 2026.
Federal Reserve officials Waller and Musalem have successively signaled a hawkish stance, stating that "further rate hikes are still needed and additional tightening may be necessary over the next 6 to 9 months." Coupled with the fact that U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 last week, marking the fourth consecutive week near a 57-year low, the data underscores stronger-than-expected economic resilience and reinforces the macroeconomic backdrop of the Fed maintaining high rates or even continuing to hike.
For aluminum prices, this combination creates financial headwinds in the form of a strong dollar and high rates, making the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields prone to rise. This directly weighs on dollar-denominated LME aluminum, capping upside room for the overseas market. On the other hand, robust employment and a non-recessionary economy also imply resilience in overseas industrial demand, meaning it is not an across-the-board negative for industrial metals. Overall, LME aluminum is dominated by rate-hike expectations and a stronger dollar, leading to a short-term bearish consolidation, which in turn drags down SHFE aluminum.
On October 8, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 23,760/tonne, down Yuan 270/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 23,960/tonne, down Yuan 290/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 23,670/tonne, down Yuan 260/tonne from the previous day.
On the fundamental side, aluminum prices plunged sharply, and coupled with pre-holiday stockpiling, overall trading was decent. Inventories saw a notable drawdown ahead of the holiday. After the break, market sentiment turned cautious with a wait-and-see attitude. However, with prices currently at a relatively low level, downstream enterprises maintained procurement as needed, and demand continued to be released.
Yesterday marked the first trading session after the National Day holiday. Although absolute prices moved lower, futures-to-spot traders maintained strong selling interest, keeping market liquidity ample. However, buyers mainly adopted a bargain-hunting approach with price suppression, resulting in overall average trading activity.
Overall, SHFE aluminum dropped sharply post-holiday, weighed by hawkish Fed signals and a stronger dollar. Spot liquidity stayed ample but buyers bargained aggressively, keeping trading average.
