On October 9, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract for November delivery decreased by 0.49% by the end of Friday's daytime trading and fell by 1.55% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 23,605/tonne as of 1 a.m. Saturday, October 10, 2026.
Escalating Middle East tensions, marked by attacks on Saudi airports and oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, have driven crude oil prices higher. As a highly energy-intensive commodity, aluminum has benefited from rising overseas energy costs for production, while disruptions to Middle Eastern smelters and maritime logistics have lent additional support to LME aluminum.
However, Trump's signal that the U.S. will not strike Iran before the midterm elections has tempered tail risks of an all-out war and a Hormuz Strait blockade, prompting crude to give back some gains and capping aluminum's upside.
Hawkish signals from Fed officials, coupled with stronger-than-expected economic resilience, have reinforced the macro backdrop of sustained elevated rates or even further hikes. With the dollar and Treasury yields prone to rising, LME aluminum priced in dollars faces direct headwinds, capping its upside.
On October 9, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 23,660/tonne, down Yuan 100/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 23,850/tonne, down Yuan 110/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 23,580/tonne, down Yuan 90/tonne from the previous day.
Yesterday's early session saw SHFE aluminum fluctuate upward, with traders' inventories in the Central Plains market declining and holding around 120,000 tonnes. As the basis strengthened, holders slowed their sales pace and stood firm on offers, leading to a relatively tighter flow of available material in the market. Following the post-holiday price decline, downstream buyers procured as needed, with restocking enthusiasm picking up. Traders actively entered the market to source lower-priced material. Overall, trading activity warmed up.
In the South China market, spot prices traded below the cross-month average. Sellers showed strong inclination to hold prices firm; however, with the basis at elevated levels, buyers pressed for lower prices. Downstream fabricators also replenished inventories at lower absolute price levels. The overall buying atmosphere improved, with transactions deemed fair.
Overall, SHFE aluminum edged lower on October 9, pressured by a stronger dollar and Fed hawkishness while finding a floor from Middle East geopolitical risks and firmer spot fundamentals.
