On September 29, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract for November delivery decreased by 0.25% by the end of Tuesday's daytime trading and fell by 0.46% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 23,910/tonne as of 1 a.m. Wednesday, September 30, 2026.
Yesterday, SHFE aluminum traded in a narrow range. As of Monday, traders' inventories of aluminum ingots fell 56,000 tonnes from the prior Monday to 642,000 tonnes. The aluminum market continues to see low overseas inventories and sustained domestic destocking. However, the macro backdrop, liquidity tightening amid overseas rate-hike cycles, is capping gains, leaving SHFE aluminum moving in line with the broader base-metals complex in a sideways pattern.
On September 29, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 24,110/tonne, down Yuan 60/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 24,330/tonne, down Yuan 80/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 24,010/tonne, down Yuan 60/tonne from the previous day.
In Guangxi, a new alumina project has commenced feed commissioning. China's operating alumina capacity is set to exceed 100 million tonnes, with the supply-demand balance leaning loose and the sector accumulating stocks. Recent increases in bauxite ocean-freight rates, together with elevated futures-spot trading activity, have temporarily eased spot-price downside pressure. Yet, given the oversupply outlook, any rebound lacks strong conviction, and alumina is expected to remain range-bound at low levels.
Yesterday morning, SHFE aluminum edged higher in choppy trade. In the Central China market, traders' inventories dipped slightly and held around 110,000 tonnes. The basis was unchanged. With the holiday approaching, holders accelerated shipments, keeping spot supply relatively ample. As aluminum prices softened, downstream users stuck to small, need-based restocking, with purchasing momentum weaker than prior sessions. Overall trading was unremarkable.
September 29 marked the second-to-last trading day before the National Day holiday. Inter-provincial freight trucks became scarce, so intraday activity was dominated by deliveries to local downstream fabricators. Mid-tier traders began exiting the market on a phased basis, while a few selectively picked up deeply discounted material at aggressive bids. Overall, the South China market saw only fair-to-modest volumes.
Overall, low inventories underpin SHFE aluminum, but the peak-season effect is materializing slowly and rate-hike expectations plus geopolitical risks are intertwined, leaving SHFE aluminum range-bound with resistance overhead and support below.
