Copper prices fluctuated on September 29, slightly falling in China's spot market while modestly rebounded in futures market. Approaching China's National Day holiday (Oct 1-7), market activity in China gradually weakened, with downstream stockpiling generally mediocre.
China's refined copper spot trading experienced a limited increase on September 29, as holders continued actively selling. Spot premiums generally dropped across major markets, but stayed at relatively high levels overall, suppressing spot consumption and downstream pre-holiday stockpiling. Scrap trading also increased but stayed constrained due to limited supply and ongoing tax policy adjustments, with downstream scrap processors faced with severe raw material constraints.
Trading in China's copper semis markets remained generally weak on September 29. Though copper rod transactions slightly increased due to falling prices and end-users' procurement based on rigid demand, other copper semis saw cautious trading amid elevated raw material prices and slow demand recovery.
China's copper market is entering the 2026 National Day holiday with shrinking supply buffers rather than a broad-based demand boom, with spot premiums elevated. With smelters holding little finished product inventory, raw-material shortages worsening and holiday maintenance adding further pressure, physical tightness is likely to remain copper prices' key source of support. The post-holiday copper market in China is likely to remain fundamentally shaped by the tension between tightening supply and increasingly price-sensitive demand.
