On October 16, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract for November delivery increased by 0.71% by the end of Friday's daytime trading and rose by 0.56% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 23,315/tonne as of 1 a.m. Monday, October 19, 2026.
The stronger-than-expected US September CPI reinforced bets on further Fed rate hikes, pushing the US Dollar Index above 102 and exerting broad-based valuation pressure on the nonferrous metals complex. Aluminum prices briefly breached the Yuan 23,000/tonne level intraweek, yet traded lower on the week versus previous week, underscoring a tug-of-war between spot-side fundamentals and softer macro expectations.
In the near term, post-holiday aluminum ingot inventories have drawn down rapidly, spot premiums have widened, and downstream operating rates have ticked up marginally. Physical buyers stepping in on dips have kept solid bids near the Yuan 23,000/tonne level, leaving the fundamental backdrop unconducive to a clean downside break.
That said, overhead resistance remains intact: Fed tightening expectations continue to whipsaw, the USD index stays elevated, and with the seasonal demand lull approaching, a marginal softening in consumption will erode that support. On balance, we expect aluminum to base-build and trade sideways in the current range over the near term.
On October 16, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 23,470/tonne, up Yuan 200/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 23,470/tonne, up Yuan 160/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 23,360/tonne, up Yuan 200/tonne from the previous day.
SHFE aluminum bottomed and rebounded in Friday's morning session, grinding higher through the day. In the East China spot market, conditions stayed firm-to-stable: arrivals remained light and inventories extended their drawdown. Holders opened the morning actively lifting offers on buoyant sentiment. However, as the basis kept strengthening into the weekend, some sellers turned more willing to offload, and spot availability gradually loosened. Downstream fabricators stayed active in bargain hunting, while trader participation eased, leaving overall trading firm-to-soft over the course of the day.
In South China, the A00 aluminum basis widened sharply versus the prior session; realized transaction prices traded at a markedly larger premium to the SHFE front-month, with spot premiums returning to late-September highs. Sellers were proactive, nudging offer levels lower, but merchants drove hard bargains and only lifted metal on dips, keeping inter-trade flows thin. Under the classic "buy on upticks, wait on dips" mindset, downstream plants showed strong restocking interest last Friday, and overall market turnover was decent.
Overall, solid spot fundamentals, falling inventories and active downstream restocking cap the downside, but elevated Fed-hike expectations and a firm USD keep rallies contained.
