On October 14, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract for November delivery decreased by 0.75% by the end of Wednesday's daytime trading and fell by 0.93% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 23,120/tonne as of 1 a.m. Thursday, October 15, 2026.
US September CPI rose 3.7% year on year and 0.3% month on month, while core CPI rose 2.6% year on year and 0.6% month on month, both above market expectations. After the data, the probability of a Fed rate hike in October rose to 33%, and stronger dollar and Treasury yields exerted short-term pressure on aluminum prices through their financial attributes: higher holding costs and weaker risk appetite pushed LME aluminum lower along with base metals.
However, Goolsbee said inflation was "disappointing" but more data are needed before hiking, Bowman argued there is no need to rush into further policy adjustments, and Daly noted further hikes may be necessary but are not imminent, so aluminum prices are not in a one-way decline.
For aluminum itself, hotter-than-expected inflation boosted rate-hike bets and weakened demand expectations in aluminum-intensive sectors such as housing, autos and packaging, which is a macro headwind; but high overseas energy costs, low supply elasticity of aluminum, low inventories and cost support put a floor under prices.
On October 14, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 23,620/tonne, down Yuan 100/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 23,700/tonne, down Yuan 100/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 23,520/tonne, down Yuan 110/tonne from the previous day.
SHFE aluminum traded weakly and rangebound in yesterday's morning session. In the East China spot market, conditions remained relatively firm: with inventories falling for several sessions, most holders chose to raise offers actively and slow down sales, market expectations still leaned bullish, and spot supply remained manageable. Downstream plants restocked by buying on dips, while traders also tried to buy and support prices; trading sentiment was active and overall dealings were fair.
In the South China market, sellers were keen to offload material, but downstream buyers remained cautious; in the buyer-seller tug-of-war, sellers gradually gave ground, and overall turnover for the day was relatively weak.
Overall, SHFE aluminum slipped after sticky US CPI lifted Fed hike bets to 33%, pressuring metals via a firmer dollar. Yet cautious Fed comments and tight physical supply kept losses contained.
