On October 9, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract for November delivery decreased by 0.49% by the end of Friday's daytime trading and fell by 1.55% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 23,605/tonne as of 1 a.m. Saturday, October 10, 2026.
The fluctuating situation in the Hormuz Strait has injected a geopolitical risk premium into aluminum prices. Iran stated that the US has only partially accepted its conditions for reopening the strait, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has designated vessels turning off their navigation identification systems as hostile targets and expanded its tracking scope, keeping navigation risks elevated. As the Middle East serves as a critical corridor for global aluminum and alumina logistics, the uncertainty in the strait continues to drive up shipping insurance premiums, energy and smelting ancillary costs, and reinforces market expectations of disrupted regional production capacity and raw material transportation, providing a floor for aluminum prices.
At the same time, however, US consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since May, with the current economic conditions index hitting a record low, compounded by a renewed rise in inflation expectations. This means the Federal Reserve's room to cut interest rates is constrained, and the outlook for industrial demand is under pressure, capping aluminum's upside.
On October 9, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 23,660/tonne, down Yuan 100/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 23,850/tonne, down Yuan 110/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 23,580/tonne, down Yuan 90/tonne from the previous day.
Last Friday's early session saw SHFE aluminum fluctuate upward, with traders' inventories in the Central Plains market declining and holding around 120,000 tonnes. As the basis strengthened, holders slowed their sales pace and stood firm on offers, leading to a relatively tighter flow of available material in the market. Following the post-holiday price decline, downstream buyers procured as needed, with restocking enthusiasm picking up. Traders actively entered the market to source lower-priced material.
In the South China market, spot prices traded below the cross-month average. Sellers showed strong inclination to hold prices firm; however, with the basis at elevated levels, buyers pressed for lower prices. Downstream fabricators also replenished inventories at lower absolute price levels. The overall buying atmosphere improved, with transactions deemed fair.
Overall, geopolitical conflict and macroeconomic weakness have formed a bull-bear tug-of-war, and aluminum prices may maintain a high-level oscillation pattern of "risk premium providing a floor, demand expectations capping the top" in the short term.
