On October 15, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract for November delivery decreased by 1.31% by the end of Thursday's daytime trading and rose by 0.24% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 23,160/tonne as of 1 a.m. Friday, October 16, 2026.
The Iranian Navy says it has imposed "around-the-clock" monitoring over the Strait of Hormuz, and a cargo ship sank after being attacked, signaling that Middle East shipping risks are heating up again. If the situation deteriorates further, rising oil prices and higher marine insurance premiums would push up the energy and logistics costs of primary aluminum production, while expectations of disrupted Middle East aluminum supply would add a risk premium to LME aluminum, broadly bullish for aluminum prices.
But the US September data exert the opposite drag: PPI came in at 6.3% y/y and 1.3% m/m, both far above expectations, while retail sales rose 0.8% m/m, also beating forecasts. This shows producer-side inflation and consumer spending still have momentum. Markets will reprice the risk that the Fed holds rates higher for longer or even hikes again; a stronger dollar and higher US Treasury yields would weigh on dollar-denominated base metals including aluminum.
On October 15, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 23,270/tonne, down Yuan 350/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 23,310/tonne, down Yuan 390/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 23,160/tonne, down Yuan 360/tonne from the previous day.
SHFE aluminum traded weak and drifted lower in early trading yesterday. In the East China spot market, performance remained firm: as aluminum prices fell successively, downstream fabricators were further prompted to replenish inventories, buying actively; strong just-in-needs demand supported the market, drawing traders back into the market to take material. Solid demand-side support led holders to hold prices firmer, with expectations for a stronger outlook still intact and available supply pressure manageable. Overall trading was fairly good.
In South China, the A00 aluminum ingot basis was unchanged from the previous session. Support for spot from low inventories and structurally tight supply has not yet broken down, but the actual transaction price's premium over Shanghai futures narrowed slightly. Sellers were active in offering material, while downstream buyers took a cautious stance; whole-day turnover was weak, the quotation center moved lower, and overall deals remained soft.
Overall, Middle East shipping tensions and stronger-than-expected US inflation data are pulling aluminum in opposite directions, with supply-side risks offering support while a firmer dollar and higher Treasury yields limit upside. Spot markets across China softened overall, though East China held up on active downstream restocking, while South China saw weaker turnover and a narrower premium to futures.
