China's refined copper foreign trade showed mixed trends in September 2026. Imports rebounded month on month as delayed previous shipments arrived and import economics improved, while exports edged lower amid tighter domestic supply. However, year-to-date imports and exports both remained below the level in 2025, with imports continuing to face pressure from U.S. tariff expectations and its diversion of refined copper to the U.S. market.
China's refined copper imports reached 253,400 tonnes in September 2026, rising by 21% month on month but falling by 24% year on year, according to the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC). During January to September, China imported 2.1255 million tonnes of refined copper, falling by 16.63% year on year.
Source: GACC, Mysteel
China's refined copper imports increased month on month in September, with most of the additional volume coming from non-registered brands originating mainly in Africa and Russia. At the beginning of the month, previous shipments delayed by typhoon weather arrived at ports, while the recovery of cargo-handling efficiency at some ports also facilitated customs clearance and deliveries to the domestic market. However, the overall increase was limited by continued shipping delays and waiting times for unloading at ports.
Meanwhile, expectations surrounding U.S. tariff policy slightly eased mid-month, prompting the COMEX-LME price spread to retreat from elevated levels. With the domestic import arbitrage open, some refined copper was redirected to China, further supporting the month-on-month increase. Nevertheless, imports remained lower year on year. Expectations of U.S. import tariffs on refined copper continued to divert material to the U.S. market, constraining supplies available to China.
Looking ahead, China's refined copper imports are expected to increase slightly month on month in October. Although the domestic market was closed during the National Day holiday (October1-7), a concentration of incoming shipments continued to arrive at ports. The retreat in the COMEX-LME spread also leaves room for further import growth. In addition, elevated spot premiums for refined copper in China are expected to encourage importers to step up customs clearance and import activity. However, geopolitical risks continue to constrain transportation capacity for African-origin material, while shipping delays remain a concern. These factors are likely to limit the pace of growth, with imports expected to rise only modestly in October.
China's refined copper exports reached 47,900 tonnes in September 2026, dropping by 4.92% month on month but increasing by 81.34% year on year, according to the GACC. Exports during January to September totaled 456,900 tonnes, falling by 5.55% year on year.
Source: GACC, Mysteel
China's refined copper exports continued to decline month on month in September. Output at some smelters was constrained by scheduled maintenance and production cuts resulting from raw material shortages. Meanwhile, domestic consumption gradually recovered, while spot premiums rose sharply during the month. Smelters also saw strong demand for deliveries under long-term contracts, leaving refined copper in-plant inventory relatively low and limiting the volume of material available for export. In addition, relatively tight port transportation capacity during the month hindered the shipment of export cargoes to overseas markets, further weighing on export volumes.
Looking ahead, refined copper exports are expected to decline further in October. The number of domestic smelters undergoing maintenance is set to increase significantly, while difficulties in procuring raw materials and falling sulfuric acid prices are prompting additional production cuts at some facilities. As a result, smelters are expected to show limited willingness to export, with spot volumes available for overseas shipment remaining scarce. At the same time, the domestic export arbitrage window may remain closed, further discouraging exports.
According to Mysteel's survey, China's refined copper exports are expected to fall further in October, with actual volumes projected at around 15,000-20,000 tonnes.
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Written by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
