On November 4, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract decreased by 0.50% by the end of Wednesday's daytime trading and rose by 0.02% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 23,000/tonne as of 1 a.m. Thursday, November 5, 2026.
After his midterm election setback, Trump signaled willingness to "work with Democrats, keep the defense secretary in place, and decide on his own when to wind down the wars," while acknowledging that the Iran war hurt his electoral prospects. Markets then bet on a de-escalation of US–Iran tensions, sending crude oil down more than 8% in a single day. Macroeconomically, the impact on aluminum prices is a combination of "geopolitical premium fading, cost support weakening and risk appetite recovering."
In the short term, fears of Middle East aluminum supply disruptions and shipping interruptions ease. Lower oil prices reduce energy and freight costs, dampen inflation and Fed-hawkish expectations, and marginally relieve dollar and interest-rate pressures. Safe-haven buying in the metals complex fades, but overall risk sentiment improves, so LME aluminum is more exposed to geopolitical premium unwinding and tends to trade softer and range-bound. SHFE aluminum, supported by domestic supply rigidity and demand resilience, will not fully track the oil-driven decline.
Still, Trump retains military discretion and Iran has made clear its hostile stance toward the US will not change, so a real ceasefire is far from locked in. As a result, aluminum prices are mainly seeing their geopolitical risk premium squeezed out, and are more likely to pull back from highs and then move sideways in a range.
On November 4, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 23,350/tonne, down Yuan 100/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 23,460/tonne, down Yuan 70/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 23,240/tonne, down Yuan 70/tonne from the previous day.
The SHFE aluminum forward curve remains steep. In South China, holders were active sellers, offloading inventories to cash out. Traders were cautious on the buy side, mainly restocking on dips to fulfill contracts. Downstream end-users showed decent restocking appetite, and overall trading was moderate.
Overall, SHFE aluminum traded range-bound as fading geopolitical risk and lower oil prices eroded cost and risk premiums, while domestic supply rigidity and demand resilience kept the downside limited. Spot markets saw active selling in South China and cautious buying from traders, with moderate overall turnover.
