China yellow phosphorus market 2026: supply on rise, price under pressure

China's yellow phosphorus market is expected to see a net surplus of around 45.50 kt in 2026, with new capacity additions (105 kt/y) outpacing downstream demand growth (59.50 kt/y). A timing mismatch between supply expansion in the H1 and demand pickup in the H2 is likely to build inventories and maintain downward pressure on prices.

China's yellow phosphorus market is expected to remain well-supplied in 2026. Planned capacity additions total around 105 kilo tonnes/year, while downstream demand growth from sectors such as phosphorus trichloride and glyphosate is estimated at 59.50 kt/y, leaving a surplus of approximately 45.50 kilo tonnes. Prices will be shaped mainly