On November 5, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract increased by 0.80% by the end of Thursday's daytime trading and rose by 0.35% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 23,095/tonne as of 1 a.m. Friday, November 6, 2026.
Barkin said inflation is "neither accelerating nor falling back, and gradual rate hikes remain reasonable," while Hammack advocated "frequent small interest rate adjustments and a shift in policy toward a restrictive stance." Overall this is hawkish but the pace is controllable; the dollar and real rates are more likely to strengthen than weaken, and aluminum, which is dollar-denominated and has strong financial attributes, will face valuation pressure.
At the same time, Iran submitted a nuclear proposal to the US via Qatar and set seven preconditions, showing that US-Iran negotiations remain at an impasse, and risks to Hormuz Strait navigation, Middle East aluminum plant restarts and Gulf energy shipping are not yet removed, so aluminum's geopolitical supply premium is unlikely to be fully priced out in the near term.
On November 5, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 23,380/tonne, up Yuan 30/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 23,530/tonne, up Yuan 70/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 23,300/tonne, up Yuan 60/tonne from the previous day.
SHFE aluminum edged lower in early trading yesterday before rebounding. Traders' inventories in the Central Plains market fell and held around 70,000 tonnes. The basis was unchanged. Holders controlled the pace of shipments, market supply tightened somewhat, and offers were made near the average price. Aluminum prices pulled back slightly, but downstream buying interest remained firm, with restocking demand maintaining purchasing activity. Traders prioritized lower-priced cargoes. Trading sentiment warmed and overall transactions were fair.
In South China, traders' inventories kept falling, with effective stocks below 70,000 tonnes. Some intermediaries actively replenished stocks to meet contract obligations, while downstream plants were also active in inquiries and orders. Market buying interest clearly improved and overall transactions were fair.
Overall, SHFE aluminum prices were broadly steady, as a hawkish Federal Reserve and geopolitical uncertainties around Iran kept macro headwinds in play, while falling traders' inventories in China's physical markets and resilient downstream restocking underpinned spot fundamentals and limited downside.
