On November 6, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract increased by 0.07% by the end of Friday's daytime trading and rose by 0.43% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 23,180/tonne as of 1 a.m. Monday, November 9, 2026.
Kazakhstan's central bank cutting the share of gold in its reserves below 75% is, in essence, a move to reduce non-yielding assets and increase dollar-asset holdings under high U.S. Treasury yields; this reinforces the "stronger dollar and higher U.S. yields" trade and exerts valuation pressure on dollar-denominated aluminum.
At the same time, the much stronger-than-expected U.S. October nonfarm payrolls, together with the hawkish signals from Daly and Williams that inflation remains too high and further rate hikes may be needed if necessary, have increased market bets on a December Fed hike. That implies higher financing and carrying costs and weaker aggregate demand expectations, which is bearish for aluminum prices.
On the other hand, Middle East risks are providing a floor for aluminum: Trump's confirmation of small-scale U.S. strikes on targets including Iran's Qeshm Island, Iran's claim that missiles hit Qeshm Island, and the ongoing Hormuz and maritime-blockade raise energy prices and shipping risk premia. As a highly energy-intensive commodity, aluminum tends to gain cost-side and supply-side safe-haven support.
On November 6, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 23,340/tonne, down Yuan 40/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 23,660/tonne, up Yuan 130/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 23,260/tonne, down Yuan 40/tonne from the previous day.
Last Friday, traders' inventories in the South China market continued to decline, with effective traders'stocks falling below 60,000 tonnes. Some over-sold intermediaries actively replenished their positions to meet contract deliveries, while downstream factories were also keen to inquire and place orders. Market trading was active, and overall transaction volumes were solid.
Overall, in the short to medium term, aluminum prices are more likely to exhibit a pattern of range-bound oscillation--with strong dollar and rate-hike expectations capping valuations from above, and Middle East conflicts and energy-driven inflation providing a floor from below. For prices to break out to the upside, we would need to see the Middle East conflict materially disrupting the aluminum supply chain or sustained inventory drawdowns; for a downside move, it would require the Fed's hawkish stance to fully materialize and geopolitical risks to cool.
