On November 10, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract decreased by 3.45% by the end of Tuesday's daytime trading and fell by 2.74% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 22,170/tonne as of 1 a.m. Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
US October CPI rebounded more than expected and has already hit the threshold for a "large rate hike" mentioned by Fed official Waller, so markets have sharply raised bets on a 50bp Fed hike next month.
At the same time, Waller himself still backs a 25bp hike next month and 50bp if necessary; Schmid said rates remain fairly accommodative and inflation is the top concern; Logan argued there should be at least two more 25bp hikes, possibly at a faster pace than this autumn; and Bowman stressed inflation is not yet under control but the costs of further tightening must be weighed.
Combined with October core PCE seen rising 3.3% y/y, the overall macro tone leans toward "sticky inflation, delayed rate-cut expectations, and rates staying higher for longer."
For aluminum prices, a stronger dollar and higher-rate expectations weigh on the valuation of dollar-denominated base metals, while overseas demand and expectations for real estate and durable-goods orders are also dampened. Near term, aluminum faces pressure overhead and any rebound room is limited.
On November 10, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 23,290/tonne, down Yuan 250/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 23,610/tonne, down Yuan 240/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 23,190/tonne, down Yuan 260/tonne from the previous day.
Yesterday morning, SHFE aluminum fluctuated downward. Traders' inventories in the Central Plains market increased, remaining around 70,000 tonnes. As the basis spread continued to widen, holders actively sold off inventory to cash out, leading to relatively loose market liquidity. Falling aluminum prices slowed downstream demand, with strong wait-and-see sentiment and weaker purchasing momentum compared to the previous day. Traders prioritized accessing low-priced cargoes to cover existing orders as needed. Overall trading was moderate.
In the South China market, the basis spread remained elevated, and intermediaries were extremely cautious in taking deliveries. Overall trading was moderate.
Overall, US October CPI beat estimates, hitting Waller's "large hike" threshold and lifting market bets on a 50bp Fed move next month. Alongside hawkish remarks from Waller, Schmid, Logan and Bowman, plus core PCE seen at 3.3% y/y, the macro backdrop skews toward sticky inflation and higher-for-longer rates. This strengthens the dollar and caps rebounds in dollar-priced metals like aluminum, keeping prices biased lower near term.
